SOUTH AFRICA’S AGRICULTURAL
EXPORT PERFORMANCE
QUARTER THREE, 2023
TRADE RESEARCH UNIT
South Africa’s agricultural sector is largely export orientated, making it imperative to expand, monitor and maintain trade relations with its key markets. Presently, one of the key challenges for South Africa is to expand its agricultural exports. This amongst other things is attributed to South Africa’s agricultural exports being concentrated, as well as having limited access to large and growing markets like Asia and the Middle East, despite a slight increase in exports in recent times. In quarter three of 2023, South Africa’s total agricultural products exports amounted to R72.9 billion, up by 14% from R64.0 billion in quarter three of 2022.
The main drivers causing this increase in export earnings were sizeable agricultural output in production in recent seasons due to favourable weather conditions and higher commodity prices despite being lower when compared to 2022 prices. As has been the case for several years, South Africa imports a variety of agricultural products. These primarily include poultry, palm oil, rice, and wheat. Imports of agricultural products into South Africa were valued at R33.2 billion in quarter three of 2023, a 2.3% increase from R32.3 billion in quarter three of 2022.
1. TRADE RELATIONS
SOUTH AFRICA’S AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS EXPORT DESTINATION BY REGION IN QUARTER THREE, 2023.
The results presented in Figure 1 show that the African continent remains the main market for South Africa’s agricultural exports accounting for about 32% of total agricultural exports from South Africa (SA). In Africa, Botswana was the leading market for South Africa’s agricultural export earnings, accounting for a share of 16% in value, followed by Mozambique (16%), Namibia (14%), Zimbabwe (13%), and Zambia (8%). Asia and Middle East were the second major export market accounting for 31% share on South Africa’s agricultural exports, followed by Europe (27) aggregation with a share of (19%), America aggregation (8%), United Kingdom (UK) (6%), respectively. The other parts of the world accounted for approximately 4% of total agricultural exports from South Africa. Most of the percentage growth of exported agricultural products from South Africa was positive between the third quarter of 2023 and second quarter of 2023.
The percentage growth of exports to the world was 16%, while for Africa, EU, Americas, and others were accounted for 5%, 21%, 41%, and 21% respectively. On the other hand, the percentage growth for UK showed a decrease of approximately 13% of exported agricultural products from South Africa. In the Asia region, the most prominent export destinations for South Africa’s agricultural products are China, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Japan, Bangladesh, and Malaysia accounting for approximately 23%, 14%, 10%, 8%, and 5%. In Europe, Netherlands is the leading export destination for agricultural products exported from South Africa, accounting for around 36% of total exports reflecting an increase when being compared with the previous quarter, followed by UK with 20%, Russia Federation (10%), Portugal (7%), and Germany (6%). In Americas aggregation, the percentage share of on most prominent export markets were United States of America (USA) with 68%, Canada (23%), Mexico (2%), Honduras (2%), and Guatemala with (2%), respectively.
Figure 1 below shows the percentage shares of South Africa’s exports of agricultural products destination by region in quarter three, 2023.
Figure 1: Percentage shares of South Africa’s agricultural products export destination by regions Q3, 2023
Source: ITC Trade Map (2023)
*Europe (27)- Refers to 27 member states under the European Union.
2. TRADE PERFORMANCE
South African agricultural exports for quarter three of 20223, in value (Rand)
This section compares agricultural exports and imports in value-terms (Rand) from and by South Africa between the third quarter (July - September) of 2023 and the third quarter (July - September) of 2022, as well as the third quarter (July -September) of 2023 against the second quarter (April - June) of 2023.
Third quarter: July-September 2023 against July-September 2022
In quarter three of 2023, South Africa’s agricultural products exports increased by 14%, in value terms (Rand) from R64.0 billion in quarter three of 2022 to R72.9 billion in quarter three of 2023. The products that contributed to this increase were soya bean flour and meal, which increased by 7328%, followed by nuts (828%), oranges (480%), mandarins (112%), macadamia nuts (68%), soya beans (42%), among others (see Table 1). When comparing the two quarters, wheat and meslin, fresh apples and pears, wine, lemons, maize, and wheat all had negative growth rates, despite being the top exportable products in quarter three of 2023.
Third quarter (July -September) of 2023 against the second quarter (April - June) of 2023.
In quarter three of 2023, South Africa’s agricultural exports recorded a 14% quarter-to-quarter (q/q) increase from a value of R62.8 billion in quarter two of 2023. Some of the exportable agricultural products which contributed to this increase were soya bean flour and meal with a 7579% q/q increase in value of exports, followed by soya beans (128%), groats & meal of maize (53%), mandarins (31%), wheat & meslin (22%), oranges (20%), fresh apples (19%), and maize (17%), among others (see Table 1). The value of exports for raw cane sugar, nuts, and wine, experienced a decline during this period.
TABLE 1: SOUTH AFRICAN AGRICULTURAL TOP EXPORTS,
IN VALUE (RAND)
Source: Trade Map, 2023
South African agricultural imports for quarter three of 2023, in value (Rand)
Table 2 presents top agricultural imports by South Africa. Unlike exports, the trend in imports is consistent primarily because South Africa is fully dependent on the global market for consumption of commodities such as rice and wheat. Imports for wheat are determined by several factors, including local output, which is normally determined by weather during the production season.
Third quarter: July-September 2023 against July-September 2022
When comparing quarter three of 2023 to quarter three of 2022, South Africa’s imports of agricultural products experienced an increase of 2.3% y/y, increasing from a value of R32.5 billion in quarter three of 2022 to a value of R33.3 billion in quarter three of 2023. Among the most importable products, crude sunflower seeds and oil recorded the highest growth rate of 72.4% followed by whiskies (55.4%), wheat (25.3%), tobacco (20.9%), and raw sugarcane (19.5%), among others (see Table 2). On the other hand, imports of poultry meat recorded a decline of 34.6% y/y, followed by roasted malt (29.7%), coffee extracts (27.3%), prepared or preserved sardines (24.4%), live cattle (17.4%), and palm oil (16.5%), among others.
Third quarter (July - September) of 2023 against the second quarter (April - June) of 2023
When comparing quarter three of 2023 to quarter three of 2023, South Africa’s imports of agricultural products recorded a decline of 1.2% q/q, declining from a value of R33.6 billion in quarter two of 2023 to a value of R33.3 billion in quarter three of 2023. Tobacco imports recorded the highest growth rate of 246.2% during this period, followed by roasted malt (38.8%), rice (40.3%), poultry meat (29.8%), and wheat (20.1%), among others. On the other hand, South Africa’s imports of palm oil, live cattle, prepared or preserved sardines, crude sunflower seed and oil, beer malt, and food preparations recorded substantial decreases during this period, as shown in Table 2.
TABLE 2: SOUTH AFRICAN AGRICULTURAL TOP IMPORTS,
IN VALUE (RAND)
Source: Trade Map, 2023
2. TRADE PERFORMANCE
Shift in South Africa’s maize exports and imports in quarter three (3) of 2023, in percentage (%), in value (Rand)
This section highlights a few of South Africa’s most popular agricultural exports to international markets. It examines how trade patterns for a certain product vary over time, either by country or by region. This is influenced by several variables, including seasonality, tariffs, geopolitical issues, and logistics, to name a few. This section will concentrate on South Africa’s maize export trends to the European Union (EU-27), Africa, Asia & Middle East, Americas, and the United Kingdom (UK) from the third quarter of 2022 to the third quarter of 2023.
Maize Exports in quarter three of 2023
A comparison of South Africa’s maize exports in the third quarter of 2023 and 2022 is shown in Figure 2. In the third quarter of 2023, South Africa’s exports of maize came to a total of R5.8 billion, a 10.6% rise over the R5.2 billion recorded during the same period in 2022. It is important to note that because of the seasonality of the corresponding sectors, market shares in each of these areas change every quarter.
South Africa’s top region for maize exports is still Asia and the Middle East, which accounted for 71% of exports in the third quarter of 2023 (a 1% decrease from the same period the previous year), estimated to be worth R4.7 billion, up 10.2% from R3.7 billion at the same period last year. With 24% share of total exports (R1.4 billion), Africa was the second-largest market. The Americas came in third with a 3% share (R197.6 million) and the EU-27 with 1% share (R52.0 million) in the fourth position. The UK received about R10.9 million worth of maize exports from South Africa. The Americas purchased more maize from South Africa in the third quarter of 2023 compared to the same period a year ago.
Certain countries predominate in each region from which South Africa sells its maize. For example, the main importers of maize in Asia and the Middle East are Taipei (Chinese), Japan, Vietnam, Korea, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), while main importers of maize from Africa are Botswana, Eswatini, Namibia, Mozambique, and Lesotho.
Figure 2: Percentage share of South Africa’s maize exports by regions, quarter 3, 2023
Source: ITC Trade Map (2023)
Maize Imports in quarter three of 2023
South Africa is generally a net-exporter for maize, as a results, the country tends to import little to nothing of maize depending on special occasions such as severe droughts or other factors which may result in the country resorting to import maize. For the recent seasons, due to a larger extent good rains and better yields, South Africa has been importing little or no maize, and these quantities are insignificant in value terms.
COMPILED BY:
Buhlebemvelo Dube
Thabile Nkunjana
Naledi Radebe
Bhekani Zondo
FOR MORE DETAILS CONTACT:
Thabile Nkunjana
Senior Economist: Trade Research Unit,
Markets and Economic Research Centre,
National Agricultural Marketing Council
Tel: +27 (0)12 341 1115
Email: thabile@namc.co.za
Advancing science- and tech-enabled agriculture
Advancing science- and tech-enabled agriculture